seattleSavant.com

Gallup polls show a gap that’s merely a few percentage points. It’s time to throw those away. Palin’s state-to-state impact will hit the hardest.

1. As people begin to feel sympathy for her after the repeated attacks, Palin will become very popular among a certain segment of the US population. People who have made, or would make, similar family planning choices are likely to really love and adore her. Particularly those most staunchly opposed to the termination of pregnancy.

So, among this crowd, Palin on the ticket is likely to help McCain. In turn, McCain’s numbers nationwide are likely to improve.

The problem is, people with such political and social convictions are geographically distributed in a manner that doesn’t help McCain win the electoral college. McCain might win places like Utah, Idaho, Alaska by bigger margins, but these are already safe red-state bets. This doesn’t shift his likely tally of electoral college votes.

2. Palin is likely to be a big negative for the Reagan Democrats in the swing states.

The voting block of fiscally conservative but socially moderate voters concentrated in states like Michigan, Ohio, and Pennsylvania would be quite disposed to the pro-choice, anti-tax McCain of yesteryear. Hence, the choice of McCain was a savvy one–perhaps the only prominent Republican with any chance of winning the election in November.

Palin is a severe complication for this angle. There are dozens of policy stances she takes that are highly problematic for such voters: Her opposition to contraception or termination of pregnancy even when the life of the mother is imperiled are just two of many issues that could drive a wedge in for those voters. McCain’s age exacerbates this; Palin is more likely than most Vice Presidents to become President and make these stances a working priority.

Her personal choices are also highly problematic. Involvement in a radical church; involvement in radical political groups; the perceived turmoil in her familial life: none of this will help reach across the aisle.

Likewise, the political consequence of her preacher’s support for Jews for Jesus should not be taken lightly. In Ohio, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Florida, Jews are a key voting block that otherwise might be tempted to vote for McCain (the more “pro-Israel” candidate). Lieberman-shlieberman. Palin makes this flip far less likely.

The net of all this? McCain might keep the popular vote close–he might even win it!–but he’ll lose the electoral college by an even bigger margin.